6/4/2002
Early Analysis


More people are driving to
work because where they live and work offer them few options.
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Housing
growth has been concentrated in suburban areas that tend to have poor
transit service. Census
population figures released earlier this year show that most population
growth has occurred in metro areas, but outside central cities.
These mostly suburban areas generally have spread-out development
patterns where buses and trains are less likely to be available and
carpooling is inconvenient. The
number of people living in these areas grew by 18 percent.
The number of people living in the central cities, where transit,
bicycling, and walking infrastructure tend to be more prevalent, grew by
just 8 percent. Central cities
are defined by the Census Bureau as the most populous cities within a
metropolitan area.
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In
1997 and 1998, 90 percent of home buyers/sellers in Cincinnati moved
"outwards" from the core, in Cleveland, it was 91 percent, in
Columbus, 78 percent.
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Better
transit, walking, and bicycling infrastructure are giving people in a few
areas more choices in how to get to work, but the prevalence of spread-out
housing and remote office parks has meant no choice but driving for many
workers. In addition to the spread in housing patterns, worksites are now
spread far from central cities. Job
growth has concentrated farther from central cities, where transit is less
available. According to a study
by the Brookings Institution, in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, over
one-third of people now work more than ten miles from the city center.
Travel times are getting
longer because our metropolitan areas are spreading out so much.
- New
national figures show that commute times are longest for Americans who live
in metropolitan areas, but outside the central city. Workers in these
suburban areas spend an average of 26.9 minutes traveling to work, compared
with 24.9 minutes by residents in central cities.
Less than three percent of these workers use transit to reach their
jobs. Within central cities,
transit use is more than twice the national average:
10.5 percent of commuters in central cities use transit.
Average commuting times in central cities are slightly lower than the
national average, at 24.8 minutes. Central cities are defined by the Census
Bureau as the most populous cities within a metropolitan area.
- The
average reported commute time grew, even though people are overwhelmingly
using the mode believed to be the fastest - the personal vehicle. And in
some places, such as Atlanta, one of the most sprawling places in the
nation, commute times grew a lot. Atlanta’s commute time grew by
more than 5 minutes in the 1990s, but Atlantans are hardly happy with that
fact: an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll last year found that 42 percent
of residents ranked traffic as their chief concern, ahead of education and
crime.
- According
to the Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Inventory, spread-out,
unplanned development accelerated during the
1990s. From 1992-1997, an
average of 2.2 million acres of former open space was developed every year
-- more than 50 percent higher than the annual rate of development
in (1.4 million acres) in 1982-1992.
Most Americans still have
limited access to transit.
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Only
4 percent of the nation’s 4 million miles of roads are now served by
transit, either through buses or parallel train lines.
While the American preference for driving is often repeated, a new
Bureau of Transportation Statistics survey found that only 41 percent of
non-transit users cited this reason for not taking the bus or train.
A higher percentage – 47 percent – said they did not use public
transit because it was unavailable
for the destinations or times they were traveling.
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The
lack of transportation choice is clear on the household level.
Almost 90 percent (89.7%) of American households have access to an
automobile (according to the 2000 Census), and it would be reasonable to
assume that almost all Americans have access to paved roads.
But less than half of all Americans (49%) report living within
one-quarter mile of a transit stop, and only 8.3 percent of households
surveyed have subway service available.
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For
more information on highway capacity and transit capacity, see issues #2 and
#3 of STPP’s Decoding Transportation Policy and Practice series, www.transact.org.
When transit service is
convenient to work and home, people use it.
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Transit
use varied dramatically based on availability.
In central cities, it is more than twice the national average, at
10.5 percent. Outside of
metropolitan areas, transit use is less than one percent.
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Most
people are driving because they have few options. Looking at the
places that have reliable transit services, the overall numbers are much
higher. In the urbanized areas with the 19 largest transit agencies,
the percentage of commuters taking transit quadruples to 13.1 percent.
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The
new Census data shows that transit use is high in some suburban places, such
as Arlington, VA (24%), and Silver Spring, MD (23.4%).
This is because transit service exists, and has been successfully
integrated into the fabric of development.
Other suburban areas with high transit use include Winnetka, Illinois
on the north side of Chicago (27%), and El Cerrito, CA (22%).
Spending on transit
infrastructure has increased, but is still dwarfed by highway spending.
The documented growth in
transit use is not captured in the new Census Journey to Work data.
- The
new Census figures show a smaller portion of commuters used transit to get
to work in 2000, down to 4.7 percent from 5.3 percent in 1990, with absolute
numbers remaining essentially flat.
Yet over the last six years, total transit use has shot up 23
percent, outpacing the growth in driving (see ‘Transit Growing Faster Than
Driving, www.transact.org). This disparity is the result of the limits of
the Census dataset. The Census
Journey-to-Work numbers represent only a portion of all trips via transit:
less than half of all transit trips are for work.
More importantly, transit’s resurgence began in 1996 following
years of decline. Declining
ridership early in the decade meant that the total ridership growth from
1990 to 2000 came to 6.4 percent, despite strong growth at the end of the
decade and in 2001.
- Improvements
in transit infrastructure made possible by new federal funding that began in
1992 have not had time to significantly change commuting or development
patterns. Many transit systems opened new lines in the late 1990s.
While these systems showed instant growth,
they have not reached maturity.
The Limits of the Journey
to Work data.
- The
Census Journey-to-Work data only covers work trips, which make up about 20
percent of all trips. About 46 percent of transit trips are for purposes other than the trip to work.
- A
recent survey by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics showed that many
Americans use transit for occasional trips, which do not appear in the
Journey-to-Work data. In a May 2002 survey of 1015 households, 14 percent of
U.S. adults reported using transit at least once in the past month. When
narrowed down to areas where transit is available, the numbers are even more
striking: 22 percent, or more than one in five adults, used transit at least
once in the past month.
- The
JTW questionnaire only allows one answer for method to work, so those who
use more than one method, such as walking and transit, must choose between
them. In addition, the questionnaire asks for a snapshot of travel behavior
in the spring.
The Census shows that more
households own more cars; in fact automobile costs rival the cost of rent or
mortgage for most Americans.
- According
the to 2000 Census, 58.5 million households, 55.5 percent of all households,
now own two or more vehicles.
This is up from about 50.3 million households (54.7%) in 1990.
An incredible 18 million households (17.1%) own three or more
vehicles.
Americans owned more than 217 million cars and trucks, though there
were only 190.6 million licensed drivers (from the Federal Highway
Administration's, Highway Statistics Series 2000).
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People
who live in places with fewer transportation choices spend more of their
household budget on getting around. In 2000, the average household spent
$7,118 on daily transportation, 18.7 percent of their total household
budget. For example, in Houston, a place with few transportation choices,
the average household spends $9,722 of its budget (21 percent), on
transportation.
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For
more information, see Driven to Spend.
Better transit
infrastructure is putting us one step forward.
But unplanned development is pulling us two steps back.
- Most
development is still designed for the automobile, with little consideration
of access via transit, walking, or other means. Even transit infrastructure
has been designed more for cars than for direct access on foot.
- One
example is in the Washington, DC region. Many jurisdictions have not taken
advantage of the region’s transit infrastructure to locate
new housing, jobs, shopping and services at Metro stations and in town
centers where people can accomplish errands and other daily needs. For
example, Prince George's County in Maryland has 4 metro lines and 13
stations and little development at the Metro stations beyond an IRS building
at the New Carrollton station. Meanwhile Prince George's County
residents who don't work in the District clog the Wilson Bridge and the
Beltway getting to jobs and shopping in Northern Virginia and Montgomery
County. The movement of
jobs to the fringes of the metro area have also had an impact on commuting
patterns: MCI/WorldCom’s
location west of Dulles put thousands of workers on the roads, many of whom
used to commute by metro to the MCI office at Farragut North.
Special thanks to Smart Growth America, The Brookings Institution, The
Natural Resources Defense Council, the Coalition for Smarter Growth, and the American Public Transportation
Association, for their assistance in gathering statistics for this paper.
The Surface Transportation Policy Project is a nationwide network of more than 800
organizations, including planners, community development organizations, and advocacy groups,
devoted to improving the nation’s transportation system.
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